
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is rated a soft Buy at $26.75, with a probability-weighted fair value of ~$32 per share. Two near-term FDA decisions: DTX401 on Aug 23 and another for UX111 on Sept 19. DTX401 has a cleaner regulatory case, but UX111 has a credible approval path. Using 80% approval odds for DTX401 and 65% for UX111, our probability-weighted value is approximately $32 per share versus a current share price near $27.










