POST

Post Holdings is rated Buy after a 35% decline, with shares now trading at compelling 10x earnings and 6.9x forward EBITDA. POST faces weak retail volumes, pet-food headwinds, and high leverage, but management is shifting capital allocation from aggressive buybacks toward debt reduction. Fiscal 2027 is expected to be a reset year, with normalized Foodservice EBITDA and cost savings supporting an EPS rebound in 2028.

Post Holdings remains a Strong Buy, trading at an unjustified discount despite resilient free cash flow and a robust, diversified portfolio. POST's capital allocation is about to shift from aggressive buybacks—17% fiscal YTD—to debt reduction, aiming to improve fundamentals and credit profile as refinancing risks rise. Even with macro headwinds and cost pressures, POST's estimated normalized free cash flow stands strong at $643 million, yielding a P/FCF of ~5.24 despite elevated CAPEX as it continues investing.

POST's Foodservice strength lifts third-quarter 2026 results and could offset retail pressures as the company targets stable fiscal 2027 EBITDA.

POST's cereal business remains under pressure, but premium brands and assortment changes are helping close the gap with the category.

POST beats Q3 earnings estimates as Foodservice strengthened, but fiscal 2027 EBITDA is expected to remain generally flat.

POST's 11.8% monthly dip reflects weak retail volumes and rising costs, while Foodservice growth and valuation offer some support.

POST's low valuation and Foodservice growth offer support, but weak retail volumes, inflation and financing costs temper the case.

Post Holdings' Q3 earnings beat estimates despite lower sales, while weaker volumes and higher costs pressure results.

Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

ST. LOUIS, Aug. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: POST), a consumer packaged goods holding company, today reported results for the third fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. Highlights: Third quarter net sales of $1.9 billion Operating profit of $189.3 million; net earnings of $63.4 million and Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP)* of $377.3 million Narrowed fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP)* outlook to $1,560-$1,570 million; provided preliminary fiscal year 2027 Adjusted EBITDA commentary *For additional information regarding non-GAAP measures, such as Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted net earnings, Adjusted diluted earnings per common share and segment Adjusted EBITDA, see the related explanations presented under "Use of Non-GAAP Measures" later in this release.