AGNCO

We're at the halfway point of another surprisingly strong REIT earnings season, with property fundamentals continuing to improve despite a materially tougher interest rate and capital market backdrop. Among 52 equity REITs providing full-year FFO guidance, 44 raised their outlooks (85%), six maintained guidance, and just two lowered (4%) their FFO outlook. REITs have significantly outperformed during earnings season, with the Equity REIT Index gaining nearly 4% during this stretch versus a -3% decline for the S&P 500.

Rate Shock: REITs enter earnings season on their back foot amid a renewed surge in long-term rates, facing a materially different cost-of-capital and financing environment than just three months ago. The rate surge is again stressing highly leveraged borrowers, particularly across private markets. Public REITs are better positioned, but remain exposed through refinancing, tenant credit, and equity valuations. Higher rates have brought an important silver lining: years of expensive capital are finally curbing construction, with shrinking pipelines beginning to support occupancy, rents, and landlord pricing power.

The Fed's recent hawkish pivot sharply increased interest rates, negatively impacting most income sectors. CMT preferreds emerge as a compelling sub-sector, offering potential protection against rising long-term rates. Screening CMT preferreds by reset yield and yield-to-call can help identify attractive opportunities.

Pareto upgrades - swapping into strictly superior securities within the same issuer - can materially improve portfolio yield without increasing risk. Repeated Pareto upgrades raised yield on invested capital from 8.53% to 11.33% in under two years, demonstrating powerful compounding effects. Current actionable opportunity: ABR-D preferred offers an 18 basis point yield advantage over ABR-E with identical upside to par and risk profile.

AGNC Investment offers high-yield income via agency-backed mortgage securities, but its common shares face persistent book value erosion. I favor AGNC's Series E preferred, yielding 8.75%, for its superior capital preservation and lower risk of dividend impairment versus the common. Recent quarters show AGNC's asset yield at 4.98% and borrowing costs dropping to 3.79%, driving net interest income to a post-2022 high.

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript