CVR Energy reports next week, and the market is pricing in uncertainty. That uncertainty is exactly why this trade works.
CVI is sitting at $33.74, comfortably above both its 50-day ($31.63) and 200-day ($30.56) moving averages — a stock that's been quietly climbing while nobody was watching. The $32.5 short put at the August 21 expiration brings in $1.04 of premium over 23 days. That's a 3.2% return on capital at risk, annualizing north of 50%. The delta sits at -0.35, meaning the market assigns roughly a 35% probability of finishing in-the-money. You're getting paid meaningfully to take a position that requires a ~3.7% pullback just to break even.
The fundamentals here are complicated in the way energy refiners often are. Profit margins are slightly negative at -0.6% — not a great look, but not unusual for a refiner navigating crack spread compression. What matters more for a short put thesis is whether the floor holds. With the stock already trading above its analyst consensus target of $29, the market is clearly looking past the current margin squeeze. The 1.38% dividend yield and a beta of 0.82 suggest this isn't a name prone to violent dislocations. IV is running hot at 48.8% versus 30-day historical vol — that spread is your edge.
The earnings catalyst is real. Wall Street is expecting growth, and the setup heading into the print is constructive. You're not betting on a blowout quarter — you're betting that CVI doesn't crater 10% in three weeks. Given the technical support stacked below (50d MA at $31.63, 200d at $30.56, and the $32.5 strike itself), there are multiple layers before this trade gets uncomfortable. If shares slide toward the strike post-earnings, those moving averages are likely to attract buyers before you do.
Watch the earnings release closely. A miss on crack spreads or a guidance cut could pressure the stock back toward analyst targets near $29. That's the real risk — not the strike, but a gap below it. Position sizing accordingly if you're running this into the print.
Today's Atlas Trades
TNK — Short Put
- Strike: $74.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $2.26
- Stock Price: $76.78
- IV: 47.1%
- Delta: -0.348
- DTE: 23
CVI — Short Put
- Strike: $32.5
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $1.04
- Stock Price: $33.74
- IV: 48.8%
- Delta: -0.350
- DTE: 23
VET — Short Put
- Strike: $10.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $0.32
- Stock Price: $10.36
- IV: 48.3%
- Delta: -0.355
- DTE: 23
ACR — Short Put
- Strike: $17.5
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $0.58
- Stock Price: $18.11
- IV: 48.9%
- Delta: -0.359
- DTE: 23
SMG — Short Put
- Strike: $70.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $1.97
- Stock Price: $73.10
- IV: 46.8%
- Delta: -0.327
- DTE: 23
CRK — Short Put
- Strike: $12.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $0.37
- Stock Price: $12.38
- IV: 45.1%
- Delta: -0.362
- DTE: 23
BIIB — Short Put
- Strike: $185.0
- Expiration: 2026-09-18
- Premium: $5.74
- Stock Price: $205.61
- IV: 48.2%
- Delta: -0.240
- DTE: 51
QCOM — Short Put
- Strike: $145.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-28
- Premium: $3.05
- Stock Price: $162.88
- IV: 54.4%
- Delta: -0.200
- DTE: 30
AVTR — Short Put
- Strike: $12.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $0.37
- Stock Price: $12.42
- IV: 46.2%
- Delta: -0.354
- DTE: 23
KMX — Short Put
- Strike: $55.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $1.6
- Stock Price: $58.88
- IV: 56.6%
- Delta: -0.285
- DTE: 23
MSFT — Short Put
- Strike: $385.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-28
- Premium: $11.12
- Stock Price: $393.35
- IV: 34.7%
- Delta: -0.383
- DTE: 30
CHRW — Short Put
- Strike: $165.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $5.29
- Stock Price: $169.34
- IV: 44.4%
- Delta: -0.378
- DTE: 23