Southern Copper just posted a Q2 earnings beat on strong metal prices, the stock is sitting above its 50-day moving average, and we're collecting $6.54 to sell a put at $180 — a strike that also happens to be almost exactly where the 50-day MA lives. That's not a coincidence. That's a setup.
The Trade
SCCO | Short Put | $180 Strike | Aug 21 Expiration | $6.54 Premium
21 days to expiration. Delta of -0.382, so the market is pricing roughly a 38% chance this ends in the money. The $6.54 premium represents a 3.6% return on the $180 capital at risk — or about 63% annualized if you're into that kind of math. IV is running hot at 51.5% versus a 30-day HV, which means the options market is paying up. We're the ones getting paid.
Why Copper, Why Now
SCCO's Q2 earnings beat came despite low volumes — meaning margins held up on price strength alone. That's a business with operating leverage working in your direction. With a 35.9% profit margin, Southern Copper is one of the most efficient miners in the world. The dividend yield of 2.06% keeps income-oriented institutions in the stock, and a P/E of 25.9 is elevated for basic materials but defensible given the copper demand narrative around electrification and infrastructure.
The stock currently sits at $185, about 2.7% above our strike. The 50-day MA at $180.53 is the technical floor we're leaning on. Price has been consolidating above it, and the 200-day MA at $167.92 shows how far the stock has traveled — and how much cushion exists below current levels before the longer-term trend even comes into question.
The Honest Caveat
The analyst consensus target is $168 — actually below our strike. That's worth sitting with for a moment. It doesn't kill the trade, but it does tell you this isn't a name where you want to get assigned and hold forever. Copper is a macro commodity; a shift in global growth expectations, a China demand disappointment, or a dollar spike can reprice this sector fast. Beta of 1.12 means it moves with the market, just slightly amplified.
The reason this still works as a 21-day put sale: we're not making a 12-month price call. We're making a three-week call that SCCO doesn't drop more than 2.7% from current levels. Given the post-earnings stability, the 50-day support directly at our strike, and elevated IV giving us a cushion of premium, that's a reasonable bet.
What to Watch
Copper spot prices are the primary driver here — any meaningful deterioration in industrial metals sentiment could pressure SCCO quickly given the beta. Watch the 50-day MA at $180.53; if the stock closes below it convincingly before expiration, the thesis gets messier. On the upside, continued metal price strength and any positive infrastructure spending headlines out of China or the U.S. could make this trade look conservative in hindsight.
Today's Atlas Trades
META — Short Put
- Strike: $500.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-28
- Premium: $14.99
- Stock Price: $539.03
- IV: 54.4%
- Delta: -0.276
- DTE: 28
HII — Short Put
- Strike: $280.0
- Expiration: 2026-09-18
- Premium: $8.05
- Stock Price: $319.90
- IV: 52.9%
- Delta: -0.209
- DTE: 49
SLGN — Short Put
- Strike: $40.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $1.3
- Stock Price: $41.06
- IV: 46.9%
- Delta: -0.379
- DTE: 21
CHKP — Short Put
- Strike: $125.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $3.98
- Stock Price: $128.23
- IV: 45.9%
- Delta: -0.380
- DTE: 21
CROX — Short Put
- Strike: $120.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $3.48
- Stock Price: $123.66
- IV: 44.8%
- Delta: -0.362
- DTE: 21
SAIA — Short Put
- Strike: $340.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $10.5
- Stock Price: $350.63
- IV: 47.1%
- Delta: -0.364
- DTE: 21
UPBD — Short Put
- Strike: $17.5
- Expiration: 2026-09-18
- Premium: $0.44
- Stock Price: $20.12
- IV: 51.0%
- Delta: -0.193
- DTE: 49
AGCO — Short Put
- Strike: $105.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $3.32
- Stock Price: $107.13
- IV: 43.4%
- Delta: -0.395
- DTE: 21
SCCO — Short Put
- Strike: $180.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $6.54
- Stock Price: $185.00
- IV: 51.5%
- Delta: -0.382
- DTE: 21
ASO — Short Put
- Strike: $47.5
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $1.51
- Stock Price: $48.35
- IV: 42.5%
- Delta: -0.403
- DTE: 21
LNC — Short Put
- Strike: $42.5
- Expiration: 2026-09-18
- Premium: $1.39
- Stock Price: $46.02
- IV: 44.7%
- Delta: -0.275
- DTE: 49
LOGI — Short Put
- Strike: $100.0
- Expiration: 2026-08-21
- Premium: $3.13
- Stock Price: $101.57
- IV: 41.1%
- Delta: -0.409
- DTE: 21