What is the Fed cooking up? So far we've only had expectations of a rate cut pushed out further and further - as the Fed wants to wait and see what happens with unemployment, inflation, and tariffs. But recent statements seem to foreshadow a change in sentiment. And the market is reacting sending us right back toward the highs in the S&P of 6100s.
Tariff Dates to keep in mind with some retail info thrown in:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| July 8, 2025 | First tariff pause ends |
| July 17, 2025 | U.S. Monthly Retail Sales – early indicator of tariff impact |
| Late July | Q2 earnings from major retailers (Target, Best Buy, etc.) |
| August 11, 2025 | China-specific tariff pause ends |
| August 15, 2025 | June Retail Sales release |
| August 20, 2025 | TJX reports Q2 earnings |
| Late August | Additional Q2 earnings (Macy’s, Kohl’s, etc.) |
The tough thing for investors is that retail companies by and large removed their fiscal year guidance it isn't likely coming back with the tariffs still not resolved, so we'll have to look to other data points - basically EPS projections.
My only trade for today is to bring in more premium on KRE.